ABN Amro guaranteed fund tracks Korea

Want to make a bet on the volatility of the Kospi 200 index, tracking blue chip Korea? I'll promise you $71 in 3.9 years' time, provided the Kospi 200 trades flat or up on a month-to-month basis. But if any given month it trades lower, the percentage it loses is deducted from your 71 bucks. To make it sporting, because Korea is among the most volatile markets in the world, we'll put a floor on any given month's loss of 5%, or $5. So what are the odds over the next 46 months that you'll collect something?