Market Views: Is Bitcoin ready to breach $100,000?
Bitcoin’s journey through 2024 has been marked by increasing institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and shifting political dynamics.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year proved to be a watershed moment, opening doors for traditional finance players to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency through familiar, regulated vehicles.
The recent US Presidential election has added another layer to Bitcoin's evolving story, with potential policy shifts and regulatory changes hanging in the balance.
With Bitcoin's value soaring past $97,000, market participants are closely analysing both technical and fundamental factors that could influence its path forward.
AsianInvestor asked analysts and fund managers to share their views on the key factors driving Bitcoin's performance and offer their assessment of whether they think the psychologically signficant $100,000 mark will be breached in the next few weeks.
The following responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Duncan Moir, senior investment manager of alternatives
abrdn
Cryptocurrencies saw renewed investor interest in the weeks leading up to the US Presidential elections, acting as a quasi-prediction model at times, and have rallied strongly following the election of former President Donald Trump as the new President-elect.
While the election result is seen as supportive of cryptocurrencies in general (in particular “alt” coins that have been under the watchful eye of the US Securities and Exchange Commission), Bitcoin has benefitted a great deal from the positive momentum, rising by c35% since November 5.
Among the main drivers of price action are President-elect Trump’s commitment to fire current SEC Chair – and crypto-antagonist – Gary Gensler “on day one [in office]”, as well as creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve through US Treasury purchases.
While the latter seems unlikely, the market still expects Trump to follow through with his promise to fire Gary Gensler, although he may vacate the position by choice ahead of this.
This should be beneficial to cryptocurrencies and their related blockchain technologies as it is expected to lead to greater regulatory clarity.
Other factors driving Bitcoin price action are continued flows into spot ETF products (which broke all-time records for ETF flows earlier in the year), and the hotly anticipated listed options on those.
Given the broad mandate handed to the President-elect, it seems there are few blockers to continued positive sentiment around cryptocurrencies, and a move close to, or above, $100,000 for Bitcoin could be expected.
That said, cryptocurrency markets do not lack volatility, and any broad-based risk-off event could result in a near-term pullback with some profit taking.
Christopher Hamilton, head of APAC ex-Japan client solutions
Invesco
We’ve seen growing demand for digital assets, not only in the retail space, but also among traditional institutional asset owners, who had previously shied away from assets such as Bitcoin due to its inherent complexity.
However, due to the proliferation of new vehicles to house this exposure, such as ETFs, gaining access to Bitcoin is now simpler than ever.
The recent electoral outcome in the US has also fueled strong momentum for BTC, with investors beginning to fear “missing out” on an emerging pocket of strength in an otherwise increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
Additionally, investors now have a reasonable history by which to analyse the behavior and efficacy of Bitcoin in a traditional portfolio framework. This is an area where we’ve conducted significant research.
We found that even small allocations to BTC, roughly 2% for conservative portfolios and 5% for aggressive portfolios, offers notable benefits – even when return expectations for Bitcoin are significantly reduced.
However, sizing and rebalancing this exposure will be key due to the underlying volatility of BTC, but the diversification provided by this digital asset should lend ballast to a portfolio in what we see as a more volatile global environment going forward.
Julien Auchecorne, head of ventures
Auros
As Bitcoin edges toward the $100,000 milestone, some natural resistance is inevitable.
However, the combined narrative of regulatory shifts, Bitcoin’s emergence as a national reserve asset that solidifies its status as a distinct asset class, and accelerating institutional adoption are all key drivers of its current trajectory.
This phase remains heavily narrative-driven, but what is notable is the shift in pre-election thematic constraints, which have now skewed favourably, creating a more supportive environment for Bitcoin’s continued momentum.
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end 2024 is an ambitious yet plausible target.
From a technical perspective, there are no clear constraints — Bitcoin is navigating uncharted territory. However, the incremental capital required to reach this milestone is significant.
At current levels, achieving a 10% increase would demand around $200 billion in additional investments —comparable to the combined market caps of Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and the BlackRock ETF.
This figure remains modest compared to gold’s market cap, suggesting room for further growth if Bitcoin continues to position itself as a digital store of value.
The key question becomes: where does this capital come from?
A central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer, providing an immediate pathway to $100,000. However, in the short term, momentum is more likely to rely on retail participation and year-end positioning by asset managers.
That said, the holiday season traditionally brings broader market hesitation toward risk assets.
While $100K remains within reach, it would require a perfect alignment of these catalysts to materialise before year-end.
Justin d’Anethan, founder
Poly Max Investments
Bitcoin’s rally to new highs above $95,000 reflects a confluence of powerful drivers that continue to bolster its position as a now legitimate and liquid asset.
Recent factors include the Trump election victory, which signals a potentially deregulated environment supportive of crypto.
While his concrete policies won’t take shape until spring 2025, his pro-business agenda and proposed tax cuts are already lifting sentiment across risk assets -- and that includes crypto.
Coupled with institutional adoption trends and the long-term holders’ indicator seemingly not budging, there’s a robust foundation for a Bitcoin rise.
ETFs have played a pivotal role in this rally, offering institutions a liquid, safe, and regulated vehicle for exposure.
Many funds and asset managers are allocating now, aiming to front-run a potentially more favourable policy landscape and, probably, afraid to underperform if they do nothing while more gutsy peers get involved.
This is further supported by the broader macro backdrop: the expectation of lower interest rates is driving flows into hard assets like Bitcoin.
As we sit just above the previous cycle’s all-time high, the market is arguably in the early innings of a bull run, with significant room for further growth.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end 2024 appears plausible.
Key catalysts include strategic adoption by central banks as a reserve asset, a trend that could extend to pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin’s scarcity, combined with growing institutional flows and later on retail investors, sets the stage for a supply shock where limited crypto-native liquidity could force prices significantly higher.