Global Outlook for 2020: A Battle of Three Cycles

We see 2020 being influenced by three cycles fighting for supremacy. First, the traditional macro cycle, which is typically the dominant market driver. The issue here is whether there is a looming recession in the developed world. Second, the monetary policy cycle, traditionally dependent on the broader macro cycle, but due to changing central bank priorities now increasingly divorced from it. Finally, the political cycle, which, due to its ability to trigger sudden changes in policy priorities, deserves greater attention in the next few years.