2024's most read: outlook for US election, China's stimulus

OUTLOOK FOR THE 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

 

As the financial markets anticipated a close battle between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, asset managers debated which assets could outperform. 

 

AsianInvestor asked a host of investment experts about what assets could benefit if either of the candidates emerged victorious.

 

Asset managers thought a Harris win would benefit the renewable energy sector, supporting ESG (environment, social and governance).

 

Read more: Market Views: Top 3 assets likely to gain if Harris wins

 

But fund managers believed that a Trump victory could broadly benefit US stocks, citing a potential more relaxed regulatory environment.

 

Read more: Market Views: Top 3 assets poised to gain if Trump wins

 

The US dollar was predicted to strengthen under a Republication administration, mostly due to the imposition of wide-ranging tariffs although the net effect of these will depend on any retaliatory measures adopted by the US’s trading partners. 

 

As Trump makes a historic return to the White House after winning the 2024 US election, the impact of his policies which heavily focused on tax cuts, trade protectionism, deregulation, and stricter immigration policies, will be closely monitored by investors. 

 

OUTLOOK FOR CHINA'S STIMULUS PLAN

 

While China’s economy is on track to achieve this year’s growth target of around 5 per cent, it is still contending with a prolonged housing downturn, weak domestic consumption as well as a potential escalation in trade tensions with the US as President-elect Trump prepares his return to the White House in January.

 

Fund managers anticipated fiscal and structural reforms to come from next year, but remained cautiously optimistic on China’s economic outlook. 

 

Read more: Market Views: Will China announce more stimulus in 2025?

 

In an annual agenda-setting meeting of the country's top leaders, known as the Central Economic Work Conference, which was held on December 11-12, Beijing pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to maintain a stable economic growth rate.

 

Details on how Beijing will go about stimulating its economy are still lacking, as investors take a wait and see approach for plans and reforms that could boost confidence in the outlook for China. 

 

IMPACT FROM THE SCANDALS OF ADANI GROUP AND SEGANTII CAPITAL

 

Gautam Adani, the Indian tycoon who oversees the Adani Group—India's largest conglomerate with businesses ranging from infrastructure to mining—faces charges from US prosecutors over alleged involvement in a $250 million bribery case.

 

Fund managers said the scandal could temporarily be somewhat challenging to the sentiment to the overall Indian equity market. 

 

Read more: Market views: Will the Adani indictment impact India investments?

 

Hong Kong’s securities regulator launched in May criminal proceedings against hedge fund management firm Segantii Capital Management, the firm’s founder and a former trader over insider dealing.

 

Even though hedge funds have a chequered past, dogged by trading scandals and investor complaints of high fee structures.

 

Yet, they continue to attract wealthy and large institutional investors for their ability to generate absolute returns that are less correlated to stock or bond markets.

 

Read more: Segantii insider trade probe to hit sentiment on hedge funds

 

MARKET AND PEOPLE MOVES

 

In 2024, AsianInvestor delivered a series of exclusives on the leavers and joiners among the key players in asset owners and fund managers. 

 

This included the stepping down of Singlife Group’s Chief Investment Officer Kim Rosenkilde in April and the appointment of its new CIO Allen Kuo. 

 

Read more: Singlife group CIO to step down

 

Allianz’s bid in Singaporean firm Income Insurance generated significant buzz in the financial industry as well as concerns over the acquisition, which may prioritize profits over social mission. 

 

Read more: Allianz-Income deal followed talks on all-Singaporean tie-up

 

Another report by AsianInvestor in September looked at the how the German insurer's planned acquisition of a 51% stake – unveiled on July 17 – would affect Income’s strategic partnership with Fullerton Fund Management and Income's own investment team.

 

Read more: Allianz bid for Income Insurance fuels concerns over Fullerton

 

The Singapore government intervened in October to stop the proposed deal, citing public concerns. On December 16, Allianz SE announced it would scrap the proposed acquisition of a 51% stake in Income Insurance but remained committed to the insurance market in Singapore.