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Outlook 2019: Rising above the business cycle
The global financial market volatility of 2018 has cast doubt on the durability of the long-running global business cycle. Do we face recession risks or continuing, if slower, growth? Markus Schomer, chief economist of PineBridge Investments, sets out the road map for the year ahead.
Policy decisions made some 11,000 kilometres apart will drive the trajectory of the 2019 global business cycle. It rests on the ability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to successfully normalise monetary policy and engineer a soft landing for the economy, and on China’s skilful calibration of its economic policies to stimulate a rapidly slowing economy without fuelling a credit bubble.
THE FED’S DILEMMA: PAUSE OR PRESS ON
In 2019, the Fed will be looking at an economy that is gra…
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